Abstract

China’s goal of becoming an innovation-driven manufacturing power necessitates an evaluation framework that integrates technological, economic, and environmental dimensions. This study develops such a framework by shifting from an “innovation policy” perspective to an “innovation development policy” perspective, and proposes the Manufacturing Innovation Development Performance Index (MIDPI). The MIDPI integrates innovation inputs, conditions, outputs, impacts, and multi-dimensional development effects, forming a dual-index system: The Manufacturing Innovation Capability Index (MICI) and the Manufacturing Innovation Development Index (MIDI). Using this framework, the study measures the innovation development performance of 30 two-digit manufacturing industries in China from 2014 to 2023. Results reveal the follows: (1) knowledge- and technology-intensive industries take the lead on both MICI and MIDI, showing a patter where “the strong get stronger”; (2) traditional industries face low-level lock-in with a narrowing transformation window; and (3) the “Matthew effect” is intensifying, concentrating innovation resources and green dividends among knowledge-intensive sectors. The findings clarify the systemic and dynamic nature of manufacturing innovation development and offer targeted insights for identifying industrial strengths and weaknesses.